Random

I was making a counter for myself, but also decided to post it here... cause I can)

For players, who noticed, that 'His blue nosferatu work better, then my red ones...' (not really)

Firstly, about Randomness. When we have some event, which is impossile to predict, we call it 'Random'. The most popular example - coin throwing. It isn't absolutely random, cause if we could know it's mass, starting speed at the moment of throwing, hardness of surface and other 20+ variables - we could definitely predict the result. But while it's still too hard to calculate everything, we can call it random, even if it's not really random.

If event is unpredictable, we still can notice some pattern. We can write each result of coin toss, and after many-many throws, count - how many times we got tails. Take that number and divide by sum of all throws - we will get a result, close to 0.5 (or 50%). The more attempts we have - closer will be the number to 50%. People decided to call this number Probability (Chance), which describes the expectation that an event will occur.

That's why, when someone asks about probability of an event, answer 'It's random' makes no sense. Yes, it's random, but still has a probbility - a numeric value, which can say about expectation of the event. "Probability - 30%" doesn't mean, that it will work 1 time from three attempts and continue with the same scenario. In practice, it can occur 10 times in a row, and then 10 times - not. But after thousands attempts, if we divide the positive results by the sum of all attempts, we will get a number, close to 0.3 (30%).

So, I wanted to understand better, how does it work, but didn't liked the idea of throwing coins and counting whole day)) And decided to create a counter. Below you can see something like building, with 10x10 = 100 windows. You can insert any chance and click on the building - light will switch on randomly in rooms)

Light:
0


Sum of attempts =
0

Average % of access (light-on) =
0




You can play with 30% chance and make sure, that "he's reflecting everything" or "I have 30% reflection and got 10 hits without any reflection" - are not so rare events (considering, that each new row is the continuation of previous one).

Another interesting situation with 50% chance. Seems, that 50% will work nearly half the time. But in practice, you can find 6-7 same-color rows nearly in each click. It sounds like nonsense, but even with the imaginary experiment we can make sure, that it isn't.

Take 200 people and ask them to throw a coin. Everyone, who got heads - stay, others - leave. Nearly 100 people will stay and we will ask them to repeat throwing. Now we have about 50 people, who had thrown 2 heads in a row... third attempt - 26 people with 'three times in a row heads' >> fourth - 14 people >> fifth - 6 >> sixth - 4 people >> seventh - 2 >> eighth - we found a man, who got 'heads' eight times in a row! Rare event? Not so) And now we can interpret this result for game... where character has 50% chance of some buff, which don't want to work 7-8 times in a row. But you also will sometimes notice rows with 7-8 positive results.

Another thing: clicking on the squares, you will understand, that 100 hits are too little for statistics. Cause frequently you get a number with big variation from expected chance. So, when some witcher reflects 8 fire dots in a row, it doesn't mean that he is cheating or something else... it's called '%@#*!@ Lucky!'. And 10-20 hits can't be called 'statistics'. In such small rows everything can happen.

Also, here works psychology. People easily remember negative events, cause positive ones are perceiving as proper, but negatives - as shocking and unexpected. But noone will hit his anticlass with magic 10.000 times, to ensure, that reflection works properly))



  

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Comments
This post speaks to me on many levels. Thank you for taking the time to write it!!!! Just a fun side note, instead of Random, we here call it "DE Math".
Another good one :) I do think my orbs sometimes don’t disorient enough.
I love your posts. Keep them coming.
I thought I had this working, but the numbers aren't changing. Is it working for anyone else?
Xadria, О_о yes... from Chrome... (you must input a number in the "chance %" field)
OPTIMUS PRlME, There we go! Thank you very much.
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